Comprehensive Summary
Han et al., investigates whether machine learning models which analyze daily atrial fibrillation (AF) burden on implantable cardiac devices can predict short-term risk of stroke better than more traditional clinical methods. The researchers analyzed cardiac device data from Veterans Health administration patients by applying machine learning models such as neural networks, random forests, and logistic regression. They then compared this data to the clinical tool CHA₂DS₂-VASc, to see which could better predict the risk of stroke over a period of 30 days. They tested both test and validation data. The CHA₂DS₂-VASc performed worse on both data sets, with an (area under the curve) AUC ≤ 0.5, while the random forest model performed best on test data with an AUC of 0.662 and the logistic regression model performed best on validation data with an AUC of 0.702. However, the best results came when combining the CHA₂DS₂-VASc and machine learning models, yielding a validation AUC of 0.696 and test AUC of 0.634, which were the highest averages on non-training models. These results demonstrate that AF burden patterns derived from implantable devices provide valuable data for predictive signals of short-term stroke. Machine learning is a powerful tool which provides incremental improvement in stroke prediction.
Outcomes and Implications
Stroke is a devastatingly common complication of atrial fibrillation, and the CHA₂DS₂-VASc has limited accuracy in predicting short-term stroke risk. This research is important because it can show how continuous device data and advanced analysis like machine learning models can help to identify vulnerable patients early and more accurately. By honing in on these developments, it is possible to attain real time stroke monitoring, creating a plethora of new treatment strategies. These findings are also clinically relevant since they can reveal prognostic information that the current scoring systems cannot. The authors state that larger trials for further validation are required, and once validated this practice could be easily integrated into routine cardiology practice.