Comprehensive Summary
This article demonstrates the external validation of the Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine learning algorithm (SORG-MLA), originally developed in the United States, on a Taiwanese cohort to predict prolonged opioid use after anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF). The original SORG algorithm was trained on 2,737 U.S. patients, split 80:20 into training and testing sets, who had undergone ACDF between 2000 - 2018. Various machine learning models were tested (stochastic gradient boosting was superior in discrimination, calibration, and performance) and incorporated 9 clinical and demographic variables to estimate individualized risk - sex, multilevel procedure, insurance type, tobacco use, use of Beta-2 agonists, gabapentin use, ACE inhibitor use, antidepressant use, and duration of preoperative opioid use. In the Taiwanese validation study, 1,037 Taiwanese patients (from 2010 - 2018) were assessed, with SORG-MLA’s performance evaluated through discrimination (AUROC = 0.78), balance of precision and recall (AUPRC = 0.35), and clinical utility analyses. The algorithm demonstrated strong performance, with an 18% increase in prediction accuracy compared to the null model (Brier score = 0.033), though it did overestimate prolonged opioid use (predicted around 8% vs. observed 3.3%). Overestimation was attributed in the study to cultural tendencies in Taiwan to withhold pain reports, tighter opioid control policies, and demographic differences from the U.S. cohort.
Outcomes and Implications
This paper’s results display SORG-MLA’s potential to serve as a predictive tool across completely distinct healthcare systems and populations, supporting a global application of advanced AI models in personalized postoperative care. Future studies should focus on multicenter validation efforts, evaluation across more ethnic groups, account for contemporary datasets and updated prescription practices, and include more predictive variables such as graft type. However, if refined and validated for clinical translation, SORG-MLA could reliably identify patients at risk for prolonged opioid use after ACDF, and initiate early interventions against possible opioid abuse, overdose, and opioid-related death.