Comprehensive Summary
Masci et al. developed a machine-learning model to estimate cardiovascular biological age (“HeartAge”) from routinely obtainable cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) phenotypes. Using gradient-boosting regression trained on 3,760 healthy UK-Biobank participants, the model was applied to 31,784 individuals to derive the HeartAge-gap, which was defined as the difference between biological and chronological age. HeartAge correlated strongly with chronological age (r = 0.91) and was independent of regression-to-the-mean bias. Across a median follow-up of approximately 5.5 years, each one-year increase in HeartAge-gap was independently associated with a higher risk of a composite cardiovascular outcome in both females and males after adjustment for chronological age and major cardiometabolic confounders. HeartAge-gap also predicted all-cause mortality in females but not in males. External validation in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis confirmed an association between HeartAge-gap and hard cardiovascular outcomes in females only.
Outcomes and Implications
These findings indicate that CMR-derived cardiovascular biological age captures prognostically relevant information beyond chronological age, particularly for composite cardiovascular outcomes. The modest effect sizes, sex-specific associations, and retrospective design limit immediate adoption in clinical settings. Moreover, perspectives studies are required to define clinically meaningful thresholds, assess incremental value over established risk models, and determine whether HeartAge-guided reporting alters management or outcomes.