Comprehensive Summary
Jones et al. explored whether routine clinical and administrative data could be used to flag short-term risk of intentional self-harm or suicide among people receiving opioid agonist treatment (OAT). The team used a retrospective cohort of 46,330 individuals in New South Wales, along with linking hospital, emergency department, mental-health, incarceration, and mortality records. The researchers built machine-learning models to predict events within a 30-day window. They found gradient boosting performed best as it reached an AUC of 0.82, which allowed them to identify 30 major predictors. The strongest signals included recent emergency department visits, hospitalizations for intentional overdose or poisoning, and encounters involving borderline personality disorder, substance dependence, or depression/anxiety. A recent release from incarceration also increased risk. When applied to 2017 data, the model identified roughly 18% of OAT patients as high-risk at a given threshold. It captured about 69% of all self-harm or suicide events. The study shows that short-term risk is concentrated among individuals with frequent acute-care contact and complex psychiatric comorbidities. Furthermore, machine-learning models can outperform simpler rule-based approaches.
Outcomes and Implications
The findings of the study show a practical way for clinicians to identify short-term self-harm risk in a group that already faces a higher baseline risk and who can’t be universally screened. Many of the strongest predictors, such as frequent emergency department visits, intentional overdoses, and recent psychiatric admissions, are already visible in routine health records. This means this model could realistically be incorporated into existing clinical systems and serve as a flag for closer follow-up. The study also notes how risk tends to increase during unstable periods such as release from incarceration or repeated crisis presentations. This gives providers clearer points in time where extra support may matter for the patient. The model will not capture every case. However, it offers a more focused way for health systems to direct attention and resources toward OAT patients who appear to be at the highest short-term risk of self-harm or suicide.