Comprehensive Summary
This study looks at over 334,000 cases in the Qatar from a Middle Eastern Emergency Medical Service (EMS) between 2018 and 2022. These studies focused on which patients refused to be transported in an ambulance to the hospital looking at both receiving on scene treatment and without receiving on scene treatment. They utilized various machine learning algorithms such as logistic regression, decision trees, random forest, extra trees, and more to predict patient behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. The random forest model was the most accurate (74.78%) with an F1 score of 0.74 and an ROC AUC of 0.81. They also found that during the pandemic, the percentage of patients who refused transport to the hospital increase from 24% pre-pandemic to 40% during the pandemic. This was due to the new fear that many developed of going to the hospital and contracting the virus at that time. This model also identified key predictors like age groups (14-59 years), nationality (Qatari, MENA, and South Asian populations), chief complaints (like abdominal pain), and provisional diagnoses (especially neurological issues). Overall, this study found that machine learning models can be used by EMS systems to identify low-risk patients who could be redirected to different healthcare facilities instead of using up the limited emergency resources, which is pivotal during public health emergencies such as a pandemic.
Outcomes and Implications
This study is important because it shows how machine learning can increase the efficiency of emergency response during pandemics and public health emergencies. Machine learning allows EMS providers and physicians to be able to predict which patients calling 911 urgently need hospital transport compared to those who could safely be redirected to primary care facilities or Telehealth care. This is very important for resource allocation especially during a time like a pandemic when ambulances were dispatched to situations where patients refused transport, wasting critical resources when they were needed most. Healthcare administration and policymakers can use these models to develop smarter triage system that redirect non-urgent care, freeing up ambulances for true emergencies. This is particularly relevant for diverse communities like those in the Middle East with multiple nationalities and socio-cultural factors that influence healthcare-seeking behavior. This could really transform how we think about pre-hospital care, moving from a one-size-fits-all transport model to more personalized, efficient pathways based on actual risk and need.