Comprehensive Summary
This study, carried out by Tang and colleagues, investigates the accuracy of machine learning (ML) models in predicting major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) risk using pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A retrospective approach was used, selecting 686 T2DM patients admitted to hospitals in Guangdong, China, between January 2017 and December 2021 as a cohort. Among the patients, 183 experienced MACE upon follow-up. All patients had initial imaging of their PCAT, and these images were fed to several ML models, along with other extenuating factors, to predict the probability of MACE occurrence, then compared the predictions to the actual patient outcomes to examine accuracy. The XGBoost model exhibited the most consistent and accurate performance, maintaining good discrimination and acceptable calibration in both the clinical and external models. Additionally, to ensure accurate evaluation of model performance, Brier scores were calculated for each model, with the XGBoost model scoring 0.248, indicating its value as an effective tool. Overall, the use of ML models in predicting MACE is critical, as past approaches such as logistic regression models prove inaccurate, failing to capture nonlinear interactions among variables.
Outcomes and Implications
As type 2 diabetes mellitus becomes more prevalent in the population, it presents unique risk factors for mortality and morbidity that should be accounted for in health care plans. Previous attempts to create models to predict major adverse cardiovascular event risk proved too simplistic, reliant on linear associations and ignorant of variables most salient to patients with T2DM. This is particularly concerning due to the one-year mortality rate following acute cardiovascular events being 15% among type 2 diabetics; almost three times higher than the general population In this way, machine learning models provide an avenue through which complex, multi-factor variables can be used to create accurate predictions for T2DM patients' likelihoods of suffering from MACE. Through building accurate ML models for predicting patients' risk of MACE, physicians will be able to assess which patients may need more robust treatment plans or early intervention. This will allow resources, monetary and temporal, to be distributed more efficiently in clinical settings.